Daily Murders in the nation Drop 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The average count of daily killings monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new government figures. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder numbers might not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This announcement was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen during these past months is remarkably significant,” the President stated, noting that last month the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security plan for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

However, public safety analysts cautioned that relying on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for estimating the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to properly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it might mask days when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the country to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst concluded.